Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg
The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Shinnik Yaroslavl. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Ural (1,898) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ural have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Shinnik Yaroslavl have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tekstilshchik(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC UFA(home) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ska-khabarovsk(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Ural win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Shinnik Yaroslavl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Ural 0-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 0-1 Ural | First League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 0-2 Ural | First League |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Ural 2-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Jun 24, 2020 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 0-2 Ural | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl on May 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ural score 1.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Shinnik Yaroslavl score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ural | 1.5 | 0.6 | 8 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ural sit 3rd in First League (14 points from 7 matches) and Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 6th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ural | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
- The Footlab model makes Ural the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Shinnik Yaroslavl.
- Where and when is Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl played?
- Ural vs Shinnik Yaroslavl is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ekaterinburg Arena, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.