USA vs Haiti: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Nations LeagueQuarter-finalsKick-off on November 18, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee
The Footlab AI model makes USA the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Haiti. The most likely score is 1-1. If USA wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,590 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win USA vs Haiti?
USA starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,645).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for USA vs Haiti
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
USA
4-2-3-1- 20F. Balogun
- 7G. Reyna
- 17M. Tillman
- 14S. Berhalter
- 4T. Adams
- 2S. Dest
- 16A. Freeman
- 6A. Trusty
- 3C. Richards
- 5A. Robinson
- 25C. Brady
Known absences
C. RoldanOut · Muscle injury
Haiti
4-2-3-1- 18W. Isidor
- 17D. Jean-Jacques
- 11L. Deedson
- 7F. Picault
- 6C. Sainté
- 15R. Providence
- 2C. Arcus
- 5H. Delcroix
- 8M. Expérience
- 22J. Duverne
- 1A. Pierre
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 05:05 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, USA have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Haiti have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Canada(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mexico(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Chile(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Peru(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 1-4 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Costa Rica(away) | 0-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dominican Republic(away) | 4-1 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Costa Rica(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(home) | 3-2 | CONCACAF Nations League |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 2-4 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 USA wins, 0 draws, 0 Haiti wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | USA 2-1 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Jul 12, 2021 | USA 1-0 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
| Jul 11, 2015 | USA 1-0 Haiti | CONCACAF Gold Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
USA score 2.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Haiti score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 2.4 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Haiti | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about USA vs Haiti?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for USA vs Haiti?
- The Footlab AI model makes USA the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Haiti.
- Where and when is USA vs Haiti played?
- USA vs Haiti is played on November 18, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at GEODIS Park, in the CONCACAF Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.