USD Casatese vs Pavia: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 26Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo Comunale n.2, Casatenovo
The Footlab AI model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Pavia. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Pavia?
USD Casatese starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,746 vs 1,584).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for USD Casatese vs Pavia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
USD Casatese
Not enough data to predict the USD Casatese lineup.
Pavia
Not enough data to predict the Pavia lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, USD Casatese have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Pavia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pistoiese(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 4-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(home) | 1-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Correggese(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Arconatese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sant'Angelo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 USD Casatese win, 1 draw, 0 Pavia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | USD Casatese 1-0 Pavia | Serie D - Girone B |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Pavia 3-3 USD Casatese | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: USD Casatese vs Pavia on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
USD Casatese score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Pavia score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD Casatese | 1.9 | 0.8 | 9 | 5/15 | 9/15 |
| Pavia | 1.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
USD Casatese sit 6th in Serie D - Girone D (13 points from 7 matches) and Pavia sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | USD Casatese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
A question about USD Casatese vs Pavia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for USD Casatese vs Pavia?
- The Footlab AI model makes USD Casatese the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Pavia.
- Where and when is USD Casatese vs Pavia played?
- USD Casatese vs Pavia is played on February 28, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo Comunale n.2, in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.