Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Real Sociedad (2,145) and Rayo Vallecano (2,117).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 18Carlos Soler
- 7Barrenetxea
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 22Héctor Fort
- 1Álex Remiro
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 7Isi Palazón
- 24F. Lejeune
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 20I. Balliu
- 25E. Audero
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Union St. Gilloise(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real Sociedad win, 3 draws, 2 Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 5th in La Liga (16 points from 9 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (9 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 9 |
A question about Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.