Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Real Sociedad (2,099) and Rayo Vallecano (2,096).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real Sociedad win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Rayo Vallecano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-1 Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 17th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.