Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Norra GötalandNorra Götaland - 20Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC)Vänersvallen Nord, Vänersborg
The Footlab model makes Ahlafors the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Vänersborgs FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors?
Ahlafors starts as the favourite with a 184-point Elo edge (1,544 vs 1,360).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vänersborgs FK have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Ahlafors have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | IFK Skövde(home) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vänersborgs IF(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Skara(away) | 0-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Herrestads(home) | 2-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Motala(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lidköping(away) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grebbestad(home) | 3-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad II(home) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IFK Skövde(away) | 0-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Tord(home) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Vänersborgs FK win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Ahlafors win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | Ahlafors 1-1 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Vänersborgs FK 1-1 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 13, 2025 | Ahlafors 1-0 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Ahlafors 1-0 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| May 3, 2024 | Vänersborgs FK 2-3 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 30, 2022 | Vänersborgs FK 3-3 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Ahlafors vs Vänersborgs FK on Apr 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vänersborgs FK score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ahlafors score 2.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vänersborgs FK | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Ahlafors | 2.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vänersborgs FK sit 10th in Division 2 - Norra Götaland (13 points from 13 matches) and Ahlafors sit 4th (22 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ahlafors | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 22 | 31 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors?
- The Footlab model makes Ahlafors the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Vänersborgs FK.
- Where and when is Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors played?
- Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors is played on September 4, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC) at Vänersvallen Nord, in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.