Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors: prediction and stats
CONMEBOL SudamericanaSemi-finalsKick-off on October 21, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Vasco DA Gama. The most likely score is 1-1. If Boca Juniors wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,885).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Vasco DA Gama
4-1-4-1- 19Bruno Duarte
- 22A. Lescano
- 5S. Sosa
- 11A. Gómez
- 23Thiago Mendes
- 28Adson
- 30Robert Renan
- 96Paulo Henrique
- 66Cuiabano
- 4A. Saldivia
- 1Léo Jardim
Boca Juniors
4-3-3- 19L. Flores
- 13E. Valencia
- 7C. Palacios
- 18M. Delgado
- 25S. Ascacíbar
- 15W. Alarcón
- 3L. Blanco
- 2L. Di Lollo
- 17L. Lozano
- 42F. Herrera
- 1Á. Montero
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vasco DA Gama have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Boca Juniors have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Remo(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 5-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(away) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 3-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Racing Club(away) | 3-2 | Copa Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Vasco DA Gama win, 0 draws, 0 Boca Juniors wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Boca Juniors 0-1 Vasco DA Gama | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
Last archived meeting: Boca Juniors vs Vasco DA Gama on Oct 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vasco DA Gama score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Boca Juniors score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Boca Juniors | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Vasco DA Gama | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors?
- The Footlab AI model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Vasco DA Gama.
- Where and when is Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors played?
- Vasco DA Gama vs Boca Juniors is played on October 21, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.