Match

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio São Januário, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

Vasco DA GamaCorinthians

The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Corinthians. The most likely score is 1-1. If Vasco DA Gama wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?

On Elo ratings, Vasco DA Gama has 1,883 points and Corinthians 1,813.

53%25%22%
Vasco DA Gama winDrawCorinthians win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Vasco DA Gama

4-1-4-1
  1. 19Bruno Duarte
  1. 5S. Sosa
  2. 23Thiago Mendes
  3. 9F. Colidio
  4. 22A. Lescano
  5. 18M. Hinestroza
  1. 30Robert Renan
  2. 96Paulo Henrique
  3. 66Cuiabano
  4. 4A. Saldivia
  1. 1Léo Jardim

Corinthians

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Yuri Alberto
  1. 37Kaio César
  2. 8R. Garro
  3. 7Breno
  4. 10M. Depay
  5. 14Raniele
  1. 13Gustavo Henrique
  2. 21Matheus Bidu
  3. 2Matheuzinho
  4. 3Gabriel Paulista
  1. 1Hugo Souza

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 06:33 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vasco DA Gama have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Corinthians have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Vasco DA Gama
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Botafogo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Coritiba(home)5-0Serie A
Sep 15, 2026Santa Fe(home)2-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Gremio(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 8, 2026Santa Fe(away)0-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Corinthians
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Internacional(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Fluminense(home)1-3Serie A
Sep 17, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)0-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 13, 2026Flamengo(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 10, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(away)1-1CONMEBOL Libertadores

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Vasco DA Gama wins, 1 draw, 5 Corinthians wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Corinthians 1-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Dec 21, 2025Vasco DA Gama 1-2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
Dec 18, 2025Corinthians 0-0 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
Aug 24, 2025Vasco DA Gama 2-3 CorinthiansSerie A
Apr 5, 2025Corinthians 3-0 Vasco DA GamaSerie A
Nov 24, 2024Corinthians 3-1 Vasco DA GamaSerie A

Last archived meeting: Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Vasco DA Gama score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Corinthians score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Vasco DA Gama1.70.976/158/15
Corinthians0.81.348/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Vasco DA Gama sit 14th in Serie A (34 points from 28 matches) and Corinthians sit 16th (32 points from 29 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
14Vasco DA Gama289712364234
16Corinthians298813303432

A question about Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians?
The Footlab AI model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Corinthians.
Where and when is Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians played?
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio São Januário, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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