Match

Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.: prediction and stats

Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires

Velez SarsfieldGimnasia M.

The Footlab AI model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-1. If Velez Sarsfield wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?

On Elo ratings, Velez Sarsfield has 1,990 points and Gimnasia M. 1,900.

52%26%22%
Velez Sarsfield winDrawGimnasia M. win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Velez Sarsfield

4-2-3-1
  1. 77R. Martínez
  1. 29R. Aliendro
  2. 8L. Robertone
  3. 22M. Lanzini
  4. 37J. Policella
  5. 39T. Aguirre
  1. 3Elías Gómez
  2. 4J. García
  3. 32Thiago Silveor
  4. 16L. Magallán
  1. 1T. Marchiori

Gimnasia M.

4-2-3-1
  1. 9A. Módica
  1. 30E. Fernández
  2. 21F. Antonini
  3. 26F. Lencioni
  4. 28T. O'Connor
  5. 7L. Cingolani
  1. 4E. Muñoz
  2. 3M. Recalde
  3. 2D. Mondino
  4. 32L. Paredes
  1. 23C. Rigamonti

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velez Sarsfield have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat; Gimnasia M. have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Velez Sarsfield
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2026Platense(home)2-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 21, 2026Tigre(home)3-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 11, 2026Newells Old Boys(away)1-1Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 6, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)1-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 3, 2026Boca Juniors(home)0-0Copa Argentina
Gimnasia M.
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(away)0-3Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 19, 2026Deportivo Riestra(home)0-0Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 11, 2026Defensa Y Justicia(away)0-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Sep 5, 2026Boca Juniors(home)2-2Liga Profesional Argentina
Aug 30, 2026Independiente(away)3-0Liga Profesional Argentina

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 0 Velez Sarsfield wins, 0 draws, 1 Gimnasia M. win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 3, 2026Gimnasia M. 3-2 Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina

Last archived meeting: Gimnasia M. vs Velez Sarsfield on Apr 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Velez Sarsfield score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia M. score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Velez Sarsfield1.30.959/154/15
Gimnasia M.1.21.265/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Velez Sarsfield sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 11 matches) and Gimnasia M. sit 7th (17 points from 11 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Velez Sarsfield11560171121
7Gimnasia M.11524141217

A question about Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
The Footlab AI model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Gimnasia M..
Where and when is Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. played?
Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Amalfitani, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Velez Sarsfield and Gimnasia M.

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