Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Velez Sarsfield (1,938) and Gimnasia M. (1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velez Sarsfield have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Gimnasia M. have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | River Plate(away) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 3-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Velez Sarsfield win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gimnasia M. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Gimnasia M. 3-2 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Gimnasia M. vs Velez Sarsfield on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia M. score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Gimnasia M. | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and Gimnasia M. sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gimnasia M. | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M.?
- The Footlab model makes Velez Sarsfield the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Gimnasia M..
- Where and when is Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. played?
- Velez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia M. is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Amalfitani, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 18, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsInstituto Cordoba
- Oct 18, 2026HuracanvsGimnasia L.P.
- Oct 18, 2026BanfieldvsArgentinos JRS
- Oct 18, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsSan Lorenzo
- Oct 18, 2026Boca JuniorsvsTalleres Cordoba
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