Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol': prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Yuvileinyi, Sumy
The Footlab model makes Viktoriya Mykolaivka the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Yarud Mariupol'. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol'?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Viktoriya Mykolaivka (1,687) and Yarud Mariupol' (1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Viktoriya Mykolaivka have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Yarud Mariupol' have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 2-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 2-0 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol'(away) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinaz Vyshhorod(away) | 6-0 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka II(home) | 3-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SK Poltava(home) | 0-3 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk(away) | 0-2 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka(home) | 0-1 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Viktoriya Mykolaivka win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Yarud Mariupol' win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-1 Viktoriya Mykolaivka | Persha Liga |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Yarud Mariupol' 2-0 Viktoriya Mykolaivka | Persha Liga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka 1-2 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-1 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
| Sep 11, 2024 | Yarud Mariupol' 0-4 Viktoriya Mykolaivka | Persha Liga |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka 0-0 Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga |
Last archived meeting: Yarud Mariupol' vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka on Jul 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Viktoriya Mykolaivka score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Yarud Mariupol' score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Viktoriya Mykolaivka sit 1st in Persha Liga (12 points from 4 matches) and Yarud Mariupol' sit 13th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoriya Mykolaivka | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Yarud Mariupol' | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol'?
- The Footlab model makes Viktoriya Mykolaivka the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Yarud Mariupol'.
- Where and when is Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol' played?
- Viktoriya Mykolaivka vs Yarud Mariupol' is played on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Yuvileinyi, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.