Vilanova vs L'Escala: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers, Vilanova i la Geltrú
The Footlab model makes Vilanova the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for L'Escala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vilanova vs L'Escala?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Vilanova (1,788) and L'Escala (1,703).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vilanova have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; L'Escala have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manresa(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Cornellà(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 17, 2026 | Cornellà(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 10, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Can Vidalet(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tona(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vilanova(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Can Vidalet(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | San Cristóbal(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Vilanova win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 L'Escala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vilanova 2-1 L'Escala | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | L'Escala 0-0 Vilanova | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Vilanova score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; L'Escala score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vilanova | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| L'Escala | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vilanova sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 (56 points from 34 matches) and L'Escala sit 7th (46 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vilanova | 34 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 56 |
| 7 | L'Escala | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 51 | 51 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vilanova vs L'Escala?
- The Footlab model makes Vilanova the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for L'Escala.
- Where and when is Vilanova vs L'Escala played?
- Vilanova vs L'Escala is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadi Associació dels Alumnes Obrers, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.