Virtus Verona vs Tritium: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone BGroup B - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini, Verona
The Footlab model makes Virtus Verona the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Tritium. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus Verona vs Tritium?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Virtus Verona (1,615) and Tritium (1,546).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus Verona have 0 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats; Tritium have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lumezzane(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Alcione(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2024 | Pro Palazzolo(home) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Club Milano(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Desenzano Calvina(home) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Caravaggio(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Arconatese(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus Verona score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tritium score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Verona | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Tritium | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus Verona vs Tritium?
- The Footlab model makes Virtus Verona the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Tritium.
- Where and when is Virtus Verona vs Tritium played?
- Virtus Verona vs Tritium is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Gavagnin-Nocini, in the Serie D - Girone B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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