Vitesse vs NAC Breda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)GelreDome, Arnhem
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Vitesse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitesse vs NAC Breda?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Vitesse (1,721) and NAC Breda (1,792).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitesse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; NAC Breda have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Al-Jazira(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vitesse win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 NAC Breda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2019 | Vitesse 4-1 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| Dec 9, 2018 | NAC Breda 2-1 Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| Apr 7, 2018 | NAC Breda 1-0 Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| Aug 12, 2017 | Vitesse 4-1 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
| Feb 7, 2015 | NAC Breda 0-1 Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2014 | Vitesse 2-2 NAC Breda | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitesse score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitesse sit 10th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and NAC Breda sit 7th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitesse vs NAC Breda?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Vitesse.
- Where and when is Vitesse vs NAC Breda played?
- Vitesse vs NAC Breda is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at GelreDome, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.