Vitesse vs Emmen: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)GelreDome, Arnhem
The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Emmen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitesse vs Emmen?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Vitesse (1,721) and Emmen (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitesse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Emmen have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Al-Jazira(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 6-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Roda(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vitesse win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Emmen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Vitesse 3-3 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Emmen 2-4 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Vitesse 2-0 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Emmen 3-3 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 4, 2023 | Emmen 2-2 Vitesse | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Vitesse 2-1 Emmen | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitesse score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Emmen score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Emmen | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitesse sit 10th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and Emmen sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitesse vs Emmen?
- The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Emmen.
- Where and when is Vitesse vs Emmen played?
- Vitesse vs Emmen is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at GelreDome, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.