Palmeiras vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,122 vs 1,960).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Bahia have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 2-3 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Palmeiras win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Bahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Bahia | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 1st in Serie A (48 points from 23 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (34 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 48 |
| 6 | Bahia | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Bahia played?
- Palmeiras vs Bahia is played on October 7, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.