Palmeiras vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 29Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Bahia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Palmeiras wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 121-point Elo edge (2,000 vs 1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Palmeiras vs Bahia
The starting elevens officially announced for this match.
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1- 9Vitor Roque
- 42J. López
- 30Lucas Evangelista
- 56Arthur
- 17Marlon Freitas
- 8Andreas Pereira
- 12Khellven
- 2A. Barboza
- 15G. Gómez
- 26Murilo
- 1Carlos Miguel
Known absences
JeftéOut · Knee injury- PaulinhoOut · Muscle injury
Bahia
4-3-3- 16Erick Pulga
- 9A. Véliz
- 99C. Olivera
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5N. Acevedo
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 46Luciano Juba
- 4Kanu
- 33David Duarte
- 31Roman Gomez
- 1Ronaldo
Known absences
- Léo VieiraOut · Knee injury
M. AraújoOut · Hamstring injury
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Bahia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 16, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 2-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Palmeiras wins, 0 draws, 2 Bahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Nov 20, 2024 | Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Palmeiras 2-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.5 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Bahia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 2nd in Serie A (57 points from 28 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (46 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
A question about Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 62%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Bahia.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Bahia played?
- Palmeiras vs Bahia is played on October 9, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.