Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 7, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for VVV Venlo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
Waalwijk starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,763 vs 1,659).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Waalwijk have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; VVV Venlo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dordrecht(home) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 3-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Eupen(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Köln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Waalwijk win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 VVV Venlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | VVV Venlo 0-3 Waalwijk | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Waalwijk 1-2 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| May 8, 2021 | VVV Venlo 3-3 Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
| Dec 5, 2020 | Waalwijk 3-2 VVV Venlo | Eredivisie |
| Jan 25, 2020 | Waalwijk 1-2 VVV Venlo | Eredivisie |
| Aug 3, 2019 | VVV Venlo 3-1 Waalwijk | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Waalwijk score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; VVV Venlo score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| VVV Venlo | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Waalwijk sit 14th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and VVV Venlo sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Waalwijk | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo?
- The Footlab model makes Waalwijk the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for VVV Venlo.
- Where and when is Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo played?
- Waalwijk vs VVV Venlo is played on May 7, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Mandemakers Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.