Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)STōK Cae Ras, Wrecsam
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Wrexham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Wrexham (1,977) and Middlesbrough (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wrexham have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Watford(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Wrexham win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham | League Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Wrexham 2-2 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Middlesbrough 1-1 Wrexham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Middlesbrough vs Wrexham on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wrexham score 1.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wrexham sit 14th in Championship (2 points from 2 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Wrexham.
- Where and when is Wrexham vs Middlesbrough played?
- Wrexham vs Middlesbrough is played on November 4, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at STōK Cae Ras, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.