Xelajú vs Marquense: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalRegular Season - 18Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Marquense. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Xelajú vs Marquense?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Xelajú (1,703) and Marquense (1,605).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xelajú have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Marquense have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Plaza Amador(away) | 2-5 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Malacateco(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Cobán Imperial(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Suchitepéquez(away) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mixco(away) | 0-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Municipal(home) | 1-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Antigua GFC(away) | 1-3 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Xelajú win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Marquense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 4, 2026 | Xelajú 2-0 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Marquense 1-1 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Marquense 1-0 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Xelajú 4-2 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Marquense 1-0 Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Xelajú 3-1 Marquense | Liga Nacional |
How many goals should we expect?
Xelajú score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Marquense score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Marquense | 1.0 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Xelajú sit 1st in Liga Nacional (39 points from 22 matches) and Marquense sit 8th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | 39 |
| 8 | Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 29 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Xelajú vs Marquense?
- The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 9% for Marquense.
- Where and when is Xelajú vs Marquense played?
- Xelajú vs Marquense is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mario Camposeco, in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.