Yagüe vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 31Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Salvador, Logroño
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Yagüe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varea wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yagüe vs Varea?
Varea starts as the favourite with a 213-point Elo edge (1,865 vs 1,652).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Yagüe vs Varea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Yagüe
Not enough data to predict the Yagüe lineup.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:02 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yagüe have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Varea have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Cenicero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alfaro(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Yagüe wins, 2 draws, 4 Varea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Varea 1-1 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Yagüe 1-3 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Yagüe 0-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Varea 1-1 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Yagüe 2-3 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Varea 3-2 Yagüe | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Yagüe score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yagüe | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yagüe sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (6 points from 6 matches) and Varea sit 7th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 12 | Yagüe | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Yagüe vs Varea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yagüe vs Varea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Yagüe.
- Where and when is Yagüe vs Varea played?
- Yagüe vs Varea is played on April 18, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Salvador, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.