Zira vs Neftchi Baku: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC)Zirə qəsəbə stadionu, Zirya
The Footlab model makes Neftchi Baku the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Zira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Zira (1,922) and Neftchi Baku (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zira have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Neftchi Baku have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Imisli FK(home) | 3-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Safa Baku(home) | 2-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Paide(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paide(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Araz(home) | 5-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sumqayıt(away) | 3-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Dinamo Minsk(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kapaz(away) | 1-0 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Zira win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Neftchi Baku win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Zira 1-1 Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Neftchi Baku 0-0 Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Zira 1-0 Neftchi Baku | Cup |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Zira 2-2 Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Neftchi Baku 2-4 Zira | Premyer Liqa |
| Feb 10, 2025 | Zira 1-2 Neftchi Baku | Premyer Liqa |
How many goals should we expect?
Zira score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi Baku score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zira | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Neftchi Baku | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zira sit 2nd in Premyer Liqa (6 points from 2 matches) and Neftchi Baku sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Zira | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zira vs Neftchi Baku?
- The Footlab model makes Neftchi Baku the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Zira.
- Where and when is Zira vs Neftchi Baku played?
- Zira vs Neftchi Baku is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC) at Zirə qəsəbə stadionu, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.