Qabala vs Şamaxı FK: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Şəhər stadionu, Qəbələ
The Footlab model makes Qabala the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Şamaxı FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Qabala (1,706) and Şamaxı FK (1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Qabala have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Şamaxı FK have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Safa Baku(home) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Turan(away) | 0-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 28, 2026 | Mingəçevir(home) | 2-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 21, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(home) | 3-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 15, 2026 | Karvan(away) | 2-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Turan(away) | 0-0 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Qarabag(away) | 1-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 21, 2026 | Qabala(away) | 1-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 16, 2026 | Turan(home) | 3-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 10, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(away) | 0-3 | Premyer Liqa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Qabala win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Şamaxı FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Qabala 3-1 Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Şamaxı FK 0-4 Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Qabala 0-1 Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| May 22, 2023 | Şamaxı FK 0-0 Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Qabala 2-0 Şamaxı FK | Premyer Liqa |
| Oct 14, 2022 | Şamaxı FK 1-1 Qabala | Premyer Liqa |
How many goals should we expect?
Qabala score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Şamaxı FK score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qabala | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Şamaxı FK | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Qabala sit 11th in Premyer Liqa (0 points from 2 matches) and Şamaxı FK sit 9th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Şamaxı FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Qabala | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
- The Footlab model makes Qabala the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Şamaxı FK.
- Where and when is Qabala vs Şamaxı FK played?
- Qabala vs Şamaxı FK is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Şəhər stadionu, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.