Sumqayıt vs Qarabag: prediction and stats
Premyer LiqaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kapital Bank Arena, Sumqayıt
The Footlab model makes Qarabag the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Sumqayıt. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
Qarabag is a heavy favourite: 2,054 Elo points against 1,678 — a 376-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sumqayıt have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Qarabag have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Neftchi Baku(home) | 1-3 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 22, 2026 | Qarabag(home) | 3-4 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 17, 2026 | Zira(away) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 9, 2026 | Araz(home) | 2-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| May 2, 2026 | Kapaz(away) | 1-2 | Premyer Liqa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Şamaxı FK(home) | 3-1 | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sumqayıt win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Qarabag win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Sumqayıt 3-4 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Sumqayıt 2-4 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Qarabag 0-1 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| May 4, 2025 | Qarabag 2-0 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
| Mar 3, 2025 | Sumqayıt 0-2 Qarabag | Premyer Liqa |
| Dec 16, 2024 | Qarabag 5-0 Sumqayıt | Premyer Liqa |
How many goals should we expect?
Sumqayıt score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Qarabag score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumqayıt | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Qarabag | 1.7 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sumqayıt sit 10th in Premyer Liqa (0 points from 1 matches) and Qarabag sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Qarabag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Sumqayıt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
- The Footlab model makes Qarabag the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Sumqayıt.
- Where and when is Sumqayıt vs Qarabag played?
- Sumqayıt vs Qarabag is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kapital Bank Arena, in the Premyer Liqa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.