Mortágua vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 15Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mortágua wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,608 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs Sertanense?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,838) and Sertanense (1,739).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mortágua vs Sertanense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:33 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Sertanense have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mortágua wins, 2 draws, 1 Sertanense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense 1-3 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sertanense 0-2 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Mortágua 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Mortágua 2-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Sertanense 4-3 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Sertanense 1-1 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Sertanense vs Mortágua on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (10 points from 4 matches) and Sertanense sit 12th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Mortágua vs Sertanense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs Sertanense played?
- Mortágua vs Sertanense is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.