Águilas vs Hércules: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Rubial, Águilas
The Footlab model makes Águilas the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Hércules. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Águilas vs Hércules?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Águilas (1,973) and Hércules (1,876).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Águilas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Hércules have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lorca Deportiva(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Poblense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 24, 2026 | Poblense(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 17, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Utebo(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcoyano(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Gimnastic(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | Algeciras(away) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Ibiza(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Águilas win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Hércules win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2024 | Águilas 1-2 Hércules | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2023 | Águilas 1-0 Hércules | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Águilas 1-1 Hércules | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Dec 5, 2021 | Hércules 2-1 Águilas | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Águilas score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Hércules score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Hércules | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hércules | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 41 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Águilas vs Hércules?
- The Footlab model makes Águilas the favourite at 53%, against 28% for a draw and 19% for Hércules.
- Where and when is Águilas vs Hércules played?
- Águilas vs Hércules is played on September 27, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Rubial, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.