Match

Águilas vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Rubial, Águilas

ÁguilasReal Murcia

The Footlab model makes Águilas the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Águilas vs Real Murcia?

A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Águilas (1,973) and Real Murcia (1,931).

Águilas win48 %
Draw29 %
Real Murcia win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Águilas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Águilas
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 15, 2026Lorca Deportiva(home)1-0Friendlies Clubs
May 31, 2026Poblense(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 24, 2026Poblense(home)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 17, 2026Utebo(home)2-1Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026Utebo(away)2-1Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
Real Murcia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 8, 2026Albacete(away)1-1Friendlies Clubs
Aug 5, 2026Cieza(away)4-1Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026Eldense(home)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026Port Vale(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026Eldense(home)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Águilas win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Murcia win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 10, 2024Águilas 3-0 Real MurciaFriendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2023Águilas 1-2 Real MurciaFriendlies Clubs
Aug 31, 2022Águilas 2-2 Real MurciaFriendlies Clubs
May 1, 2022Real Murcia 1-0 ÁguilasSegunda División RFEF - Group 5
Dec 12, 2021Águilas 1-2 Real MurciaSegunda División RFEF - Group 5

Last archived meeting: Águilas vs Real Murcia on Aug 10, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Águilas score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Águilas1.30.876/157/15
Real Murcia1.71.149/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Real Murcia38141014434052

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Águilas vs Real Murcia?
The Footlab model makes Águilas the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Real Murcia.
Where and when is Águilas vs Real Murcia played?
Águilas vs Real Murcia is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Rubial, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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