Match

Ajax vs Atalanta: prediction and stats

UEFA Europa Conference LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

AjaxAtalanta

The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Atalanta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ajax wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?

A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Ajax (2,111) and Atalanta (2,118).

47%26%27%
Ajax winDrawAtalanta win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Ajax vs Atalanta

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Ajax

4-3-3
  1. 10O. Gloukh
  2. 99T. Arokodare
  3. 11V. Tsygankov
  1. 8J. Brandt
  2. 24J. Mokio
  3. 18D. Klaassen
  1. 15Y. Baas
  2. 6T. Kehrer
  3. 2Lucas Rosa
  4. 5O. Wijndal
  1. 1M. ter Stegen

Atalanta

4-3-3
  1. 17C. De Ketelaere
  2. 11J. Rowe
  3. 90N. Krstović
  1. 13Éderson
  2. 19F. Kessié
  3. 10L. Samardžić
  1. 42G. Scalvini
  2. 16R. Bellanova
  3. 31T. Kristensen
  4. 77D. Zappacosta
  1. 29M. Carnesecchi

Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Atalanta have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ajax
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026NEC Nijmegen(home)1-1Eredivisie
Sep 19, 2026Excelsior(home)2-2Eredivisie
Sep 15, 2026Willem II(home)5-1Eredivisie
Sep 12, 2026Fortuna Sittard(away)5-1Eredivisie
Sep 5, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-3Eredivisie
Atalanta
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Venezia(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Juventus(away)0-2Serie A
Sep 12, 2026Cagliari(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 5, 2026AS Roma(away)1-2Serie A
Aug 31, 2026Bologna(home)1-0Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Ajax wins, 1 draw, 1 Atalanta win.

DateScoreCompetition
Dec 9, 2020Ajax 0-1 AtalantaUEFA Champions League
Oct 27, 2020Atalanta 2-2 AjaxUEFA Champions League

Last archived meeting: Ajax vs Atalanta on Dec 9, 2020

How many goals should we expect?

Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atalanta score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Ajax3.01.4213/1513/15
Atalanta1.20.967/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

A question about Ajax vs Atalanta?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Atalanta?
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Atalanta.
Where and when is Ajax vs Atalanta played?
Ajax vs Atalanta is played on October 22, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Ajax and Atalanta

Ready to know everything about football?