Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (2,104 vs 1,882).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 38Marcos Leonardo
- 99T. Arokodare
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 30A. Bouwman
- 15Y. Baas
- 1M. ter Stegen
Sparta Rotterdam
5-4-1- 9M. Zonneveld
- 11I. Babadi
- 8J. Toornstra
- 7Robin van Cruijsen
- 16J. Baas
- 5B. Kuipers
- 3M. Young
- 2L. Martes
- 4B. Martins Indi
- 6N. Verschuren
- 1M. Brouwer
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 11:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Sparta Rotterdam have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ajax wins, 3 draws, 0 Sparta Rotterdam wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ajax 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Ajax 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Ajax 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sparta Rotterdam score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 4th in Eredivisie (18 points from 9 matches) and Sparta Rotterdam sit 13th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
A question about Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam played?
- Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam is played on May 16, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.