Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC)Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Sparta Rotterdam. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,046 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 235-point Elo edge (2,197 vs 1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sparta Rotterdam
5-4-1- 9M. Zonneveld
- 11I. Babadi
- 8J. Toornstra
- 7Robin van Cruijsen
- 16J. Baas
- 5B. Kuipers
- 3M. Young
- 2L. Martes
- 4B. Martins Indi
- 6N. Verschuren
- 1M. Brouwer
Known absences
S. MitoOut · Injured
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 38Marcos Leonardo
- 99T. Arokodare
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 30A. Bouwman
- 15Y. Baas
- 1M. ter Stegen
Known absences
A. GaaeiOut · Injured
Caio HenriqueOut · Thigh injury
D. BlindOut · Back injury- K. DolbergOut · Knee injury
O. EdvardsenOut · Not in squad
S. AdingraOut · Lacking Match Fitness- S. BerghuisOut · Injured
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 07:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Rotterdam have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Ajax have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 10, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 0-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 3 draws, 3 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ajax 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Ajax 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Ajax 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Ajax vs Sparta Rotterdam on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Rotterdam score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 2.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Rotterdam sit 13th in Eredivisie (9 points from 9 matches) and Ajax sit 4th (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 18 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
A question about Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 52%, against 22% for a draw and 26% for Sparta Rotterdam.
- Where and when is Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax played?
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.