AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for PEC Zwolle. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,869 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 292-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 1,849).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 24A. Oufkir
- 14C. Stengs
- 8J. Clasie
- 3W. Goes
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
PEC Zwolle
4-2-3-1- 10K. Kostons
- 11D. Mbayo
- 8T. Sommer
- 25T. Oosting
- 30R. Thomas
- 22I. Cissoko
- 24N. Viergever
- 28S. Graves
- 3O. Aertssen
- 2S. Floranus
- 1J. Schendelaar
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 08:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; PEC Zwolle have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 0-7 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AZ Alkmaar wins, 2 draws, 1 PEC Zwolle win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Dec 3, 2025 | PEC Zwolle 1-3 AZ Alkmaar | KNVB Beker |
| Sep 24, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Feb 9, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 2-0 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2024 | PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Jan 20, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; PEC Zwolle score 1.2 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| PEC Zwolle | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 2nd in Eredivisie (20 points from 9 matches) and PEC Zwolle sit 15th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 20 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 71%, against 17% for a draw and 12% for PEC Zwolle.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle is played on May 16, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.