Aktobe vs Ordabasy: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ortalyq stadıon, Aqtöbe (Aktobe)
The Footlab AI model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aktobe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ordabasy wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
Ordabasy starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,743 vs 1,614).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aktobe vs Ordabasy
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aktobe
4-2-3-1- 11A. Shushenachev
- 20G. Zhukov
- 21Pablo Álvarez
- 6J. Atanasov
- 14A. Pastoriza
- 17Nani
- 27T. Dosmagambetov
- 9S. Ojo
- 13S. Miangué
- 23T. Erlanov
- 16A. Zarutskiy
Ordabasy
3-4-2-1- 28B. Johnsen
- 77D. Abagna
- 22S. Astanov
- 44T. Keita
- 15Z. Amir
- 11Y. Vakulko
- 16M. Căpățînă
- 25S. Maliy
- 5N. Antić
- 55A. Amanović
- 1B. Shaizada
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aktobe have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Ordabasy have 12, 0 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Yelimay Semey(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Ulytau(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Kaspiy(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Zhenys(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Irtysh(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Kaisar(away) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Atyrau(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Astana(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Okzhetpes(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Kyzyl-Zhar(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aktobe win, 4 draws, 1 Ordabasy win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Ordabasy 2-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Aktobe 2-2 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Ordabasy 0-0 Aktobe | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Ordabasy 1-1 Aktobe | Premier League |
| May 18, 2024 | Aktobe 0-0 Ordabasy | Premier League |
| May 8, 2024 | Ordabasy 1-2 Aktobe | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Aktobe score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ordabasy score 2.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aktobe | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Ordabasy | 2.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aktobe sit 4th in Premier League (45 points from 27 matches) and Ordabasy sit 1st (61 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 45 |
A question about Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aktobe vs Ordabasy?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Aktobe.
- Where and when is Aktobe vs Ordabasy played?
- Aktobe vs Ordabasy is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ortalyq stadıon, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.