Al Karkh vs Newroz: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium, Baghdād
The Footlab model makes Al Karkh the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Newroz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Karkh vs Newroz?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Al Karkh (1,532) and Newroz (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Karkh have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Newroz have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Erbil(home) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Naft(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Al Talaba(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Shorta(home) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gharraf(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Naft(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Al Karkh win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Newroz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2025 | Al Karkh 2-2 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Jan 14, 2025 | Newroz 1-0 Al Karkh | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Karkh score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Newroz score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Karkh | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Newroz | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Karkh sit 20th in Iraqi League (0 points from 3 matches) and Newroz sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Newroz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Karkh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Karkh vs Newroz?
- The Footlab model makes Al Karkh the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Newroz.
- Where and when is Al Karkh vs Newroz played?
- Al Karkh vs Newroz is played on May 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.