Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal: prediction and stats
Second DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium (Al-Wakrah Stadium), Al-Wakra
The Footlab model makes Al-Markhiya the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for UMM Salal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Al-Markhiya (1,661) and UMM Salal (1,677).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Markhiya have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; UMM Salal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Al-Khor(away) | 3-0 | Second Division |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al-Khor(away) | 3-0 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 0-2 | Second Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Al Waab(away) | 1-1 | Second Division |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Muaither SC(home) | 3-4 | Second Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Al-Gharafa(away) | 1-2 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al Ahli Doha(home) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Al Shamal(away) | 2-3 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Al-Markhiya win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 UMM Salal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Al-Markhiya 1-1 UMM Salal | Stars League |
| Dec 8, 2023 | UMM Salal 1-1 Al-Markhiya | Stars League |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Al-Markhiya 2-3 UMM Salal | Stars League |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UMM Salal 1-2 Al-Markhiya | Stars League |
| Apr 20, 2022 | Al-Markhiya 1-2 UMM Salal | QFA Cup |
| Apr 8, 2018 | UMM Salal 1-1 Al-Markhiya | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal on Apr 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Markhiya score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; UMM Salal score 1.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Markhiya | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| UMM Salal | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Markhiya the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for UMM Salal.
- Where and when is Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal played?
- Al-Markhiya vs UMM Salal is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium (Al-Wakrah Stadium), in the Second Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.