Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)GAIN Park Stadium, Antalya
The Footlab model makes Alanyaspor the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Erzurumspor FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Alanyaspor (1,929) and Erzurumspor FK (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alanyaspor have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Erzurumspor FK have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beşiktaş(home) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gaziantep FK(away) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Fatih Karagümrük(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kayserispor(home) | 3-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 3, 2026 | Antalyaspor(away) | 0-0 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Galatasaray(home) | 0-4 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amed(away) | 0-3 | Süper Lig |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Rizespor(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 2, 2026 | Çorum FK(away) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Bandırmaspor(home) | 1-1 | 1. Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Alanyaspor win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Erzurumspor FK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2021 | Alanyaspor 2-3 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Jan 21, 2021 | Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| Jan 14, 2021 | Alanyaspor 4-1 Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| Mar 10, 2019 | Alanyaspor 2-1 Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| Oct 6, 2018 | Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK on May 11, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Alanyaspor score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Erzurumspor FK score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alanyaspor sit 5th in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Erzurumspor FK sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Alanyaspor | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
- The Footlab model makes Alanyaspor the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Erzurumspor FK.
- Where and when is Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK played?
- Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is played on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at GAIN Park Stadium, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.