Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)RAMS Park, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Galatasaray the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Kasımpaşa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
Galatasaray starts as the favourite with a 250-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,908).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Galatasaray have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Kasımpaşa have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Erzurumspor FK(away) | 4-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Çorum FK(home) | 2-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Trabzonspor(home) | 1-1 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Kayserispor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Galatasaray win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kasımpaşa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Kasımpaşa 1-0 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Kasımpaşa 3-3 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Kasımpaşa 3-4 Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Galatasaray 2-1 Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Galatasaray score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kasımpaşa score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Kasımpaşa | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Galatasaray sit 1st in Süper Lig (4 points from 2 matches) and Kasımpaşa sit 12th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Kasımpaşa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa?
- The Footlab model makes Galatasaray the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Kasımpaşa.
- Where and when is Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa played?
- Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa is played on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at RAMS Park, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.