Match

Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna: prediction and stats

La LigaRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid

Rayo VallecanoOsasuna

The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,382 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

On Elo ratings, Rayo Vallecano has 2,080 points and Osasuna 2,007.

54%24%22%
Rayo Vallecano winDrawOsasuna win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Rayo Vallecano

4-3-3
  1. 10Sergio Camello
  2. 18Álvaro García
  3. 19Jorge de Frutos
  1. 8Unai López
  2. 6P. Ciss
  3. 23Óscar Valentín
  1. 24F. Lejeune
  2. 2A. Rațiu
  3. 17Adrià Pedrosa
  4. 15Mujaid Sadick
  1. 25E. Audero

Osasuna

4-4-2
  1. 17A. Budimir
  2. 9Raúl García
  1. 7Moncayola
  2. 14Rubén García
  3. 6Lucas Torró
  4. 16Moi Gómez
  1. 27Íñigo Arguibide
  2. 24Catena
  3. 35U. Santos
  4. 23Abel Bretones
  1. 13Aitor Fernández

Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:25 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Osasuna have 5, 2 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Rayo Vallecano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Osasuna(away)1-1La Liga
Sep 15, 2026Espanyol(home)2-1La Liga
Sep 12, 2026Real Madrid(away)1-4La Liga
Sep 5, 2026Racing Santander(home)3-2La Liga
Aug 31, 2026Barcelona(away)2-5La Liga
Osasuna
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Real Betis(away)2-5La Liga
Sep 19, 2026Rayo Vallecano(home)1-1La Liga
Sep 16, 2026Atletico Madrid(away)0-4La Liga
Sep 12, 2026Espanyol(home)0-2La Liga
Sep 6, 2026Alaves(away)2-5La Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rayo Vallecano wins, 2 draws, 2 Osasuna wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Osasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Jan 24, 2026Rayo Vallecano 1-3 OsasunaLa Liga
Sep 14, 2025Osasuna 2-0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Jan 19, 2025Osasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Sep 16, 2024Rayo Vallecano 3-1 OsasunaLa Liga
Apr 20, 2024Rayo Vallecano 2-1 OsasunaLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano on Sep 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Rayo Vallecano1.41.9112/1510/15
Osasuna1.11.838/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Osasuna sit 16th (8 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Rayo Vallecano722311168
16Osasuna82248188

A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna?
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Osasuna.
Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna played?
Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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