Malaga vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Malaga (1,962) and Alaves (2,009).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Alaves have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win, 1 draw, 4 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2023 | Alaves 2-1 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Dec 18, 2022 | Malaga 1-0 Alaves | Segunda División |
| May 6, 2018 | Malaga 0-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2017 | Alaves 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 11, 2017 | Malaga 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 16, 2016 | Alaves 1-1 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Alaves played?
- Malaga vs Alaves is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.