Barcelona vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Camp Nou, Barcelona
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Alaves. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barcelona vs Alaves?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,358 Elo points against 2,016, a 342-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Barcelona vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 17A. Gordon
- 14K. Adeyemi
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 7Fermín
- 24Eric García
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 15A. Christensen
- 2João Cancelo
- 1Joan García
Known absences
RaphinhaOut · Hamstring injury
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 16V. Koski
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 7Angel Pérez
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barcelona have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Alaves have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 7-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Levante(away) | 4-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Barcelona wins, 0 draws, 1 Alaves win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Alaves 1-0 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Barcelona 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Alaves 0-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Alaves 1-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Barcelona 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Barcelona score 3.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barcelona sit 1st in La Liga (21 points from 7 matches) and Alaves sit 6th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 21 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
A question about Barcelona vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barcelona vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Barcelona vs Alaves played?
- Barcelona vs Alaves is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Camp Nou, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.