Alaves vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Elche?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Alaves (2,009) and Elche (1,979).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Elche
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Elche have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alaves wins, 1 draw, 2 Elche wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Elche 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Alaves 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Elche 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 26, 2021 | Alaves 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Alaves 0-1 Elche | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2021 | Elche 0-2 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 7th in La Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Elche sit 18th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Alaves vs Elche?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Elche?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Elche.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Elche played?
- Alaves vs Elche is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.