Alaves vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Elche?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Alaves (2,075) and Elche (2,050).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Elche have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alaves win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Elche win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Elche 1-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Alaves 3-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Elche 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 26, 2021 | Alaves 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Alaves 0-1 Elche | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 11, 2021 | Elche 0-2 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Elche | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Elche sit 15th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Elche?
- The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Elche.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Elche played?
- Alaves vs Elche is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.