Malaga vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Elche?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Malaga (1,962) and Elche (1,979).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Malaga vs Elche
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 2 wins, 8 draws and 5 defeats; Elche have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Malaga win, 1 draw, 4 Elche wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2025 | Elche 2-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Malaga 0-3 Elche | Segunda División |
| Feb 1, 2020 | Elche 2-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Malaga 3-3 Elche | Segunda División |
| Jun 8, 2019 | Malaga 3-0 Elche | Segunda División |
| Oct 19, 2018 | Elche 2-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 20th in La Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and Elche sit 18th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Malaga vs Elche?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Elche?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Elche.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Elche played?
- Malaga vs Elche is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.