Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,246 vs 2,119).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Celta Vigo win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 12, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Celta Vigo 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 12th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.