Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,899 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,296 vs 2,106).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 19W. Swedberg
- 24C. Driouech
- 6I. Moriba
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 5Sergio Carreira
- 17Javi Rueda
- 18Yoel Lago
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 15J. David
- 11A. Lookman
- 20G. Simeone
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 21C. Romero
- 17D. Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 08:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Celta Vigo win, 2 draws, 3 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 0-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Celta Vigo 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Celta Vigo 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 12, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Celta Vigo 0-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 8th in La Liga (11 points from 9 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (22 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
A question about Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.