Real Madrid vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Alaves. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,797 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 291-point Elo edge (2,370 vs 2,079).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 4D. Huijsen
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 1T. Courtois
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 10Carles Aleñá
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 21A. Rebbach
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 16V. Koski
- 1Sivera
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 08:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Alaves have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Real Madrid wins, 0 draws, 0 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Real Madrid 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 14, 2024 | Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Alaves on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (21 points from 9 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Alaves played?
- Real Madrid vs Alaves is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.