Real Madrid vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,074).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Alaves have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Real Madrid win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Alaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Alaves 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Real Madrid 3-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 14, 2024 | Real Madrid 5-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs Alaves on Apr 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 6th in La Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and Alaves sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Alaves played?
- Real Madrid vs Alaves is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.