Alcazar vs Malaga: prediction and stats
Copa del ReyRound of 128Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Alcazar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Malaga wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,075 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcazar vs Malaga?
Malaga starts as the favourite with a 246-point Elo edge (2,029 vs 1,783).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alcazar vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alcazar
Not enough data to predict the Alcazar lineup.
Malaga
4-4-2- 9Chupe
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 10David Larrubia
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 23Izan Merino
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 12José Salinas
- 20Fernando Calero
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Alcazar have 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats; Malaga have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Talayuela(home) | 1-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Talayuela(away) | 2-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alcazar score 1.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 2; Malaga score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcazar | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/2 |
| Malaga | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
A question about Alcazar vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcazar vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Malaga the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Alcazar.
- Where and when is Alcazar vs Malaga played?
- Alcazar vs Malaga is played on October 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Copa del Rey.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.