Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Aldosivi the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Sarmiento Junin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Aldosivi (1,743) and Sarmiento Junin (1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aldosivi have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Sarmiento Junin have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 1-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tigre(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Aldosivi win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Sarmiento Junin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sarmiento Junin 2-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Aldosivi 2-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Aldosivi 1-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Sarmiento Junin 3-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 24, 2018 | Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Aldosivi | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Sarmiento Junin vs Aldosivi on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aldosivi score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aldosivi sit 14th in Liga Profesional Argentina (8 points from 16 matches) and Sarmiento Junin sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarmiento Junin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 8 |
| 15 | Aldosivi | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
- The Footlab model makes Aldosivi the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Sarmiento Junin.
- Where and when is Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin played?
- Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Minella, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsAtletico Tucuman
- Oct 11, 2026River PlatevsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Oct 11, 2026Racing ClubvsBelgrano Cordoba
- Oct 11, 2026Rosario CentralvsIndepend. Rivadavia
- Oct 11, 2026Union Santa FevsDefensa Y Justicia
- Oct 11, 2026LanusvsVelez Sarsfield
- Oct 11, 2026TigrevsBanfield
- Oct 11, 2026Talleres CordobavsIndependiente