San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Pedro Bidegaín, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes San Lorenzo the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Deportivo Riestra. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate San Lorenzo (1,833) and Deportivo Riestra (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Lorenzo have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Deportivo Riestra have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Huracan(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(home) | 1-1 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barracas Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 San Lorenzo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Riestra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | San Lorenzo 1-1 Deportivo Riestra | Copa Argentina |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra 1-1 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 31, 2025 | San Lorenzo 1-0 Deportivo Riestra | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Deportivo Riestra 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 12, 2024 | Deportivo Riestra 1-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra on Jul 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Lorenzo score 0.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Riestra score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Deportivo Riestra | 0.9 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Lorenzo sit 7th in Liga Profesional Argentina (22 points from 16 matches) and Deportivo Riestra sit 15th (11 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Deportivo Riestra | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
- The Footlab model makes San Lorenzo the favourite at 42%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Deportivo Riestra.
- Where and when is San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra played?
- San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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