Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 15 de Abril, Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Defensa Y Justicia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Union Santa Fe (1,834) and Defensa Y Justicia (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Santa Fe have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Defensa Y Justicia have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Union Santa Fe win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Defensa Y Justicia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Union Santa Fe 3-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Union Santa Fe 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Defensa Y Justicia vs Union Santa Fe on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Defensa Y Justicia score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Santa Fe sit 8th in Liga Profesional Argentina (21 points from 16 matches) and Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia?
- The Footlab model makes Union Santa Fe the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Defensa Y Justicia.
- Where and when is Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia played?
- Union Santa Fe vs Defensa Y Justicia is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 15 de Abril, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026Gimnasia L.P.vsAtletico Tucuman
- Oct 11, 2026River PlatevsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
- Oct 11, 2026Racing ClubvsBelgrano Cordoba
- Oct 11, 2026Rosario CentralvsIndepend. Rivadavia
- Oct 11, 2026LanusvsVelez Sarsfield
- Oct 11, 2026TigrevsBanfield
- Oct 11, 2026Talleres CordobavsIndependiente
- Oct 11, 2026San LorenzovsDeportivo Riestra