Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 14Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Deportivo Garcilaso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Alianza Atletico (1,694) and Deportivo Garcilaso (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Atletico have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Garcilaso have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Alianza Atletico win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Alianza Atletico 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-4 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| May 16, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Feb 29, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 3-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Alianza Atletico on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Atletico sit 8th in Primera División (21 points from 17 matches) and Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Where and when is Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
- Alianza Atletico vs Deportivo Garcilaso is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026UniversitariovsSport Boys
- Oct 28, 2026Sporting CristalvsAlianza Lima
- Oct 28, 2026FBC MelgarvsComerciantes Unidos
- Oct 28, 2026CiencianovsAtletico Grau
- Oct 28, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsCusco
- Oct 28, 2026ADTvsUCV Moquegua
- Oct 28, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Huancayo
- Oct 28, 2026FC CajamarcavsUTC Cajamarca