Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 14Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alianza Lima. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Sporting Cristal (1,734) and Alianza Lima (1,818).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Cristal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Alianza Lima have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Universitario(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sporting Cristal win(s), 5 draw(s), 1 Alianza Lima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alianza Lima 1-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Alianza Lima 3-3 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 1-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Alianza Lima 0-0 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 1-2 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Sporting Cristal 0-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Alianza Lima vs Sporting Cristal on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Cristal score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Cristal sit 12th in Primera División (19 points from 17 matches) and Alianza Lima sit 1st (40 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Sporting Cristal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 29 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Alianza Lima.
- Where and when is Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima played?
- Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026UniversitariovsSport Boys
- Oct 28, 2026FBC MelgarvsComerciantes Unidos
- Oct 28, 2026Alianza AtleticovsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 28, 2026CiencianovsAtletico Grau
- Oct 28, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsCusco
- Oct 28, 2026ADTvsUCV Moquegua
- Oct 28, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Huancayo
- Oct 28, 2026FC CajamarcavsUTC Cajamarca