FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 14Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, Arequipa
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?
FBC Melgar starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,598).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FBC Melgar have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Comerciantes Unidos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FBC Melgar win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Comerciantes Unidos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| May 2, 2025 | FBC Melgar 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Sep 7, 2024 | FBC Melgar 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Nov 2, 2018 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Comerciantes Unidos vs FBC Melgar on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FBC Melgar sit 5th in Primera División (28 points from 17 matches) and Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Comerciantes Unidos.
- Where and when is FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
- FBC Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos is played on October 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026UniversitariovsSport Boys
- Oct 28, 2026Sporting CristalvsAlianza Lima
- Oct 28, 2026Alianza AtleticovsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Oct 28, 2026CiencianovsAtletico Grau
- Oct 28, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsCusco
- Oct 28, 2026ADTvsUCV Moquegua
- Oct 28, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsSport Huancayo
- Oct 28, 2026FC CajamarcavsUTC Cajamarca