Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca: prediction and stats
Copa De La LigaQuarter-finalsKick-off on August 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for UTC Cajamarca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
Alianza Atletico starts as the favourite with a 168-point Elo edge (1,687 vs 1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Atletico have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; UTC Cajamarca have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADT(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cusco(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alianza Atletico win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 UTC Cajamarca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 0-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Feb 16, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Jul 14, 2023 | UTC Cajamarca 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; UTC Cajamarca score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| UTC Cajamarca | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for UTC Cajamarca.
- Where and when is Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca played?
- Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca is played on August 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Copa De La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.