Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tres de Febrero, Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Maipu the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Almagro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Almagro (1,705) and Deportivo Maipu (1,796).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almagro have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Deportivo Maipu have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colegiales(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Moron(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Quilmes(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Midland(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quilmes(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Godoy Cruz(away) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Midland(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlanta(home) | 4-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Almagro win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Deportivo Maipu win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu 1-0 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Almagro 0-1 Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Deportivo Maipu 3-1 Almagro | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Almagro 1-0 Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Maipu vs Almagro on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almagro score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Maipu score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almagro | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Deportivo Maipu | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almagro sit 13th in Primera Nacional (31 points from 26 matches) and Deportivo Maipu sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Deportivo Maipu | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 34 | 27 | 38 |
| 13 | Almagro | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 29 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Maipu the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Almagro.
- Where and when is Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu played?
- Almagro vs Deportivo Maipu is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tres de Febrero, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.