Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Quilmes the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for San Martin S.J.. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Quilmes (1,758) and San Martin S.J. (1,789).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Quilmes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; San Martin S.J. have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Telmo(home) | 3-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patronato(away) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Y Tiro(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Cordoba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | San Martin Tucuman(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico DE Rafaela(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Agropecuario(away) | 1-2 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Quilmes win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 San Martin S.J. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Quilmes 0-1 San Martin S.J. | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 16, 2024 | San Martin S.J. 0-3 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Jun 4, 2022 | San Martin S.J. 2-1 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| May 6, 2017 | San Martin S.J. 1-0 Quilmes | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 3, 2015 | Quilmes 2-0 San Martin S.J. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Martin S.J. vs Quilmes on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Quilmes score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Martin S.J. score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quilmes | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| San Martin S.J. | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Quilmes sit 10th in Primera Nacional (32 points from 26 matches) and San Martin S.J. sit 11th (32 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Quilmes | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 32 |
| 11 | San Martin S.J. | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Quilmes vs San Martin S.J.?
- The Footlab model makes Quilmes the favourite at 52%, against 29% for a draw and 19% for San Martin S.J..
- Where and when is Quilmes vs San Martin S.J. played?
- Quilmes vs San Martin S.J. is played on September 5, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.